BNR yazamuye inyungu fatizo igera kuri 7,25%: Ese bizagira izihe ngaruka ku bukungu n’imibereho y’abaturage?

Icyemezo cyafatiwe mu nama ya Komite ishinzwe Politiki y’Ifaranga kibaye mu gihe umuvuduko w’izamuka ry’ibiciro wageze kuri 8,9% muri Mutarama 2026, urenga imbago ngenderwaho za BNR ziri hagati ya 2% na 8%.

Isesengura rya BNR rigaragaza ko igitutu cy’ibiciro cyaturutse ku mpamvu z’imbere mu gihugu no hanze yacyo. Mu gihugu imbere, ibiciro by’ingufu birimo amashanyarazi n’ibikomoka kuri peteroli byazamutse, kimwe n’ibiciro by’ibiribwa byangirika vuba byatewe n’umusaruro muke w’ubuhinzi, by’umwihariko mu gihembwe cy’ihinga A 2026 cyahuye n’imbogamizi z’ikirere.

Ku ruhande mpuzamahanga, ihindagurika ry’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa ku isoko mpuzamahanga naryo rikomeje kugira ingaruka ku bihugu bitumiza byinshi mu mahanga nk’u Rwanda.

BNR itangaza ko n’ubwo ‘inflation’ ishobora kuguma hejuru gato ya 8% mu gice cya mbere cya 2026, biteganyijwe ko izagenda igabanuka mu mpera z’umwaka, mu gihe umusaruro w’ubuhinzi uzaba wiyongereye kandi ibiciro byo hanze bigahama.

Kuzamura inyungu fatizo bisobanuye iki?

Inyungu fatizo ni igipimo kigena uko amabanki y’ubucuruzi agurizanya amafaranga hagati yayo ndetse kigira ingaruka ku nyungu zitangwa ku nguzanyo no ku mafaranga abitswa.

Iyo BNR yazamuye inyungu fatizo:

• Amabanki akunda kuzamura inyungu ku nguzanyo,
• Inguzanyo ziragabanuka kuko ziba zihenze,
• Ikoreshwa ry’amafaranga mu bukungu rigabanuka,
• Igitutu cy’ibiciro kikagabanuka buhoro buhoro.

Iyi ni politiki izwi nka “tight monetary policy”, igamije gukumira ko amafaranga menshi azenguruka ku isoko mu gihe ibiciro biri kuzamuka cyane.

Ingaruka ku baturage n’abikorera

1. Ku bashaka inguzanyo

Abashoramari n’abaturage bashaka inguzanyo bashobora guhura n’inyungu zisumbuyeho mu mezi ari imbere. Ibi bishobora kugabanya ishoramari rishya cyangwa kwagura ibikorwa byari biteganyijwe.

2. Ku abafite inguzanyo zisanzwe

Abafite inguzanyo zishingiye ku nyungu zishobora guhinduka (variable rates) bashobora kubona inyungu ziyongera, bikabongerera umutwaro wo kwishyura.

3. Ku babitsa amafaranga muri banki

Mu gihe inyungu ku mafaranga abitswa zishobora kuzamuka mu gihe runaka, ababitsa bashobora kunguka kurushaho, nubwo mu gihe gishize hagaragaye igabanuka ku nyungu z’ubwizigame.

4. Ku biciro ku isoko

Ingaruka nziza iteganyijwe ni uko igitutu cy’ibiciro kizagenda kigabanuka, bigafasha kugarura ituze ku masoko no kurengera ubushobozi bwo kugura bw’abaturage.

Nubwo inflation yazamutse, ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bukomeje kwihagararaho. Mu bihembwe bitatu bya mbere bya 2025, bwazamutse ku mpuzandengo ya 8,7%, hejuru ya 7,2% byo mu 2024.

Ibyoherezwa mu mahanga byazamutseho 14,1% muri 2025, cyane cyane kubera kawa n’amabuye y’agaciro, mu gihe ibitumizwa mu mahanga byiyongereyeho 6,9%. Icyakora, icyuho cy’ubucuruzi cyakomeje kwaguka kubera ko agaciro k’ibitumizwa gasanzwe kari hejuru.

Ku ruhande rw’ivunjisha, ifaranga ry’u Rwanda ryagumye mu murongo ugereranyije n’umwaka wabanje, riganuka ku kigero kiri hasi ugereranyije na 2024, bigaragaza umutekano w’isoko ry’amadovize.

Ese hari ingaruka zishobora kubaho?

Nubwo iki cyemezo kigamije kugabanya inflation, hari ibyago bishobora kuvuka:

• Isoko ry’inguzanyo rishobora kugabanuka cyane, bigatuma ishoramari ritinda,
• Ibigo bito n’ibiciriritse bishobora guhura n’imbogamizi mu kubona inguzanyo,
• Mu gihe umusaruro w’ubuhinzi wakomeza guhungabanywa n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, inflation ishobora gukomeza kuguma hejuru kurusha uko byari byitezwe.

Kuzamura inyungu fatizo kugera kuri 7,25% ni icyemezo kigaragaza ko BNR yiteguye gushyira imbere ituze ry’ibiciro kurusha gukomeza koroshya inguzanyo. Mu gihe gito, bishobora gutuma inguzanyo ziba zihenze, ariko mu gihe kiringaniye bigamije kurengera ubushobozi bwo kugura bw’abaturage no kugarura inflation mu mbago zemewe.

Abasesenguzi bavuga ko intambwe yafashwe izatanga umusaruro mu gihe izahuzwa n’izamuka ry’umusaruro w’ubuhinzi, ituze ku masoko mpuzamahanga ndetse n’imiyoborere ihamye y’ifaranga.

BNR yatangaje ko izakomeza gukurikirana uko ibipimo by’ubukungu bihagaze, kandi yiteguye gufata izindi ngamba mu gihe bibaye ngombwa.

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